The Germans are voting on Sunday in a rare shot election that has taken on out of measure importance since the new Trump administration threatens European countries with rates, cuts them from negotiations on Ukraine and embraces an authoritarian Russia.
The elections for Parliament were called after the unpopular and overwhelming government of three parts of the Chancellor Olaf Scholz collapsed in November. Seven months before expected, the vote now falls within the middle of the European struggle for a strong leadership and as it recalibrates its relations with the United States.
Despite the effort of politicians and countless volunteers to bring the excitement in the race during the short and winter campaign dark, the polls have never moved much. Friedrich Merz and his conservative Christian democratic union have a comfortable advantage.
The right -wing alternative for Germany, or Afd, should position second place, riding the dissatisfaction of the voters for traditional parties and fears of migration. The polls show that it is likely to have its best exhibition ever.
The Social Democrats of Mr. Scholz, who expressed a victory in 2021, should arrive third, just in front of the Greens. The Social Democratic Party, the oldest party in Germany, could be ready for its worst performance as it was banned by the Nazis.
But uncertainties abound. Here are some things to look at:
The company of two, three is a crowd
No party should get enough votes to govern alone and definitively. The most important question will therefore be how many parties are necessary to form a government.
Together, Merz’s Christian Democrats on the right and the far right AFD will probably have the largest majority. But since the AFD is contaminated by neonazist associations, Merz and all the leaders of the traditional party say that they will not form a government with it. Instead they will join what is called the “firewall” aimed at keeping extremists out of power.
This leaves the Social Democrats, although they are on the left, as a most probable partner of Mr. Merz. If the two do not have enough support to form a majority, a third party will be needed.
The experience of the government in office has shown how difficult and unstable a group of three parts can be. It is a result that many analysts say that it would leave Germany almost to when the last government of three parties collapsed.
Little Kingmakers
It will therefore be of fundamental importance as the smallest parts will do and if they obtain at least the 5 % support necessary to enter Parliament.
If the survey is correct, the small Die Linke party, on the far left, seems likely to do it. The polls show that he is ready for a turning point of last year in which he seemed to be traveling after one of his most popular members, Sahra Wagenknecht, broke from it to form his party.
Sahra Wageneknecht Alliance, or BSW, as the new party is called, is running for the first time at national level. His prospects are uncertain.
Another party that hovers near the threshold is the democratic party free from business. His leader, Christian Lindner, is the man who pushed the chancellor Scholz to hunt him out of the government, falling on Sunday’s elections. For him, the vote will be a test if that move to save his party pay.
For all these parts, eliminating the barrier at the entrance of Parliament is an existential question; Without places in parliament, they are much less visible and have access to much less funding.
But if everyone enters Parliament, this will probably complicate their lives for the largest parts, reducing their number of places and denying them the possibility of a two -part coalition.
Will the “firewall” keep?
If the AFD has an even stronger exhibition than expected – somewhere above 20 percent – and causes a cumbersome effort to circumvent it, it is likely that the questions on how long it can contain the mainstream “firewall”.
Even between nationalist and anti-immigrant parties in Europe, the AFD is considered one of the most extreme. Parts of the AFD are strictly monitored by German national intelligence agencies, which have labeled extremist and potential threats to the Constitution. Party members played with relaunched Nazi slogans, minimized the horror caused by the Holocaust and were connected to plots to overturn the government.
Yet the party was embraced by the officials of the Trump administration. During the Safety Conference of Monaco this month, vice -president JD Vance invited the Germans to stop marginalizing the far -right parties, saying: “There is no room for firewalls” and met Alice Weidel, AFD candidate for The chancellor.
Elon Musk, the billionaire Trump Adviser, interviewed Mrs. Weidel on her social media X platform and approved her with a video link before Afd’s supporters gather during a event, telling them that the Germans had “too focused on past fault “.
The strength of the AFD exhibition, therefore, could demonstrate a bell not only for German politics, but also for political trends throughout Europe since the elections of Mr. Trump at a second term.
And it can be judged as an indicator if those sponsorships of Trump and Mr. Musk have contributed to legitimizing the party and have given a wider or potentially failed charm, given the new antagonistic relationship of the Trump administration with Germany and Europe.
When will we know?
The first projections will come once the surveys close on Sunday at 18:00 in Germany (Mezzogiorno Est in the United States). Since they are based on a large output survey, those numbers tend to be very precise. During the last elections, the output surveys were within 1 % of the final vote which was published hours later, once all the votes were counted.
But this year, the output survey could be less predictive. An unusual number of voters told the polls that they had not yet decided and an increasing number of voters use the mail cards and therefore do not appear in the output surveys.
Most of the Germans will be glued to their televisions at the end of the survey. Wait for the photos from the headquarters of the holidays, with everyone curled up around the candidates of lead – champagne flutes or beer cap in hand, depending on the party – waiting for those first results.