As the war raged in Gaza, another battle unfolded in parallel along Israel's northern border with Lebanon – a risky game of tit-for-tat that has intensified in recent weeks, with a much stronger enemy.
Sensing the danger of a full-scale war breaking out, President Biden sent one of his most senior aides, Amos Hochstein, to Israel on Monday and Lebanon on Tuesday to push for a diplomatic solution.
Unlike Hamas, the Palestinian militia fighting Israel in Gaza, Hezbollah has troops who are battle-hardened fighters and has long-range, precision-guided missiles that can hit targets inside Israel.
Despite clear efforts on both sides to prevent the cycle of attacks and counterattacks from escalating into a full-blown war beyond the one raging in Gaza, civilians in Israel and Lebanon have been killed and more than 150,000 people have been forced to abandon their homes along the border.
But as fighting has intensified in recent days, so have fears that a miscalculation could drag the sides into a deeper conflict. Hezbollah has said it will not negotiate a truce until Israel ends its military campaign in Gaza, which is likely to continue for weeks or months.
A stronger and better armed militia
Israeli military officials had long predicted that well-trained gunmen might one day cross their border, heading for cities and military bases, as Hamas did on October 7. But they tended to look north, fearing Hezbollah's elite fighters rather than militants. relatively weaker Palestinian armed group.
Following the Hamas-led attack, the Israeli military began rushing forces with convoys and helicopters to cover the northern border, fearing that Hezbollah would seize the opportunity to invade. The next day, Hezbollah began launching attacks in northern Israel in a show of solidarity, leading Israel to counterattack in Lebanon.
Analysts say Hezbollah is much stronger today than it was in 2006, the last time the group fought a major war with Israel. That war, which lasted about five weeks, killed more than 1,000 Lebanese and more than 160 Israelis and displaced more than a million people. But a war between the two sides today, they said, could devastate both Israel and Lebanon.
During the 2006 war, Hezbollah fired about 4,000 rockets, mostly at northern Israel, over the course of five weeks, said Assaf Orion, a retired Israeli brigadier general. The group could now likely launch as many, including heavy missiles that cause severe damage, across Israel in a single day, he added.
Brig. General Shlomo Brom, a former top Israeli military strategist, said the huge number of munitions in Hezbollah's arsenal – particularly its stockpile of drones – could overwhelm Israel's formidable air defenses in the event of a full-scale war . Hezbollah troops are also experienced fighters; many of them fought in the Syrian civil war alongside the Assad regime, also supported by Iran.
“In a no-holds-barred war, there will be greater destruction both on the civilian home front and within Israel,” General Brom said. “They have the ability to strike more or less anywhere in Israel and will target civilian targets, just as we will target southern Beirut,” he added, referring to districts of the capital known to be Hezbollah strongholds.
For Hezbollah, a serious escalation is equally worrying. The Lebanese economy was in crisis even before the current crisis, and many Lebanese have little desire for a resumption of the 2006 war. Furthermore, analysts argue that Iran, Hezbollah's patron, may not be interested in an escalation , preferring to deploy its delegates at a more opportune time.