High-level ceasefire talks appeared to gain momentum Monday, as Arab and American mediators pressed for a deal to halt fighting in Gaza and release hostages held by Hamas before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes over. assignment on January 20th.
It is not yet clear whether the sides have reached a resolution on all the central disputes that have proven insurmountable in previous rounds of negotiations, but officials have expressed optimism that a deal is achievable.
President Biden suggested on Monday that a deal between Israel and Hamas was imminent. “We are on the brink of a proposal that I detailed months ago about the war between Israel and Hamas finally coming to fruition,” he said in a foreign policy speech.
Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, said there was “a real possibility” that Hamas and Israel could reach a deal this week.
“The question now is, can we all collectively seize the moment and make this happen,” he told Bloomberg in an interview.
A Hamas official said in a text message that progress had been made on all issues and that a deal was possible in the next two days provided Israel changes its position at the last minute.
Earlier on Monday, an Arab diplomat said “real progress” was being made in the talks, and two Israeli officials said a draft agreement was awaiting Hamas approval, with the next 24 hours seen as critical.
Other Israeli officials said optimal conditions for a deal had been created, making a breakthrough possible. These officials said the emerging agreement will allow Israel to maintain a buffer zone in Gaza during its implementation and that Israeli forces will not leave the territory until all hostages are released.
They also said this would allow Palestinians displaced in southern Gaza to return to the north while unspecified “security arrangements” would be enforced.
The Hamas official, diplomat and Israeli officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy.
For months, repeated rounds of talks saw hopes raised only to be dashed days later, with Israel and Hamas blaming each other for the impasse.
If an agreement were reached, it would bring some respite to the Palestinians in Gaza, who have endured miserable conditions in refugee camps and incessant bombing by Israel, and to the families of hostages taken by Israel, who have suffered for months in question about the fate of their loved ones.
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Hamas leaders want to end the Israeli onslaught, which has severely weakened the group’s armed wing and government, uprooted nearly two million people and reduced cities to rubble. Hamas officials have also said they are seeking a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the return of displaced people in the south to the northern enclave, the entry of reconstruction materials and the freedom of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. Hamas said in a statement on Monday that the Palestinian prisoners would soon be released.
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The sides have long been discussing a three-phase agreement in what Arab and American officials hope will bring an end to the war. But Israeli officials said Monday that the deal could have only two phases, with negotiations on the details of the second phase starting on the 16th day of the first phase.
What are the biggest obstacles?
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One of the main obstacles to the success of the talks was the permanence of the ceasefire. While Hamas has called for a total end to the war, Netanyahu has said he wants a “partial” agreement that would allow Israel to resume the war after the hostages are freed.
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According to a Palestinian familiar with the matter and two Israeli officials, Israel has asked for vague language in the text of an agreement that leaves room for a resumption of fighting at some point. Netanyahu fears that his right-wing coalition partners could topple his government and jeopardize his political future if he accepts a deal that ends the war, analysts say.
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In a post on X on Monday, Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister, described “the emerging deal” as “a national security catastrophe” for Israel and said he would not support it.
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Hamas has given no indication that it would be willing to compromise on its demand to end the war. Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas official, said at a meeting in Algeria last week that there must be “an absolute end to aggression.”
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Another obstacle has been how far into Gaza Israel will be allowed to carry out military operations in the first phase of the deal. Israel would have liked to have the ability to maneuver up to 1.5 kilometers, or about a mile, inside the enclave, the two Israeli officials and the Palestinian with knowledge of the matter said. According to the Palestinian, Hamas wanted the incursions to be limited to within 500 meters of the border.
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Israeli officials, however, now say that the emerging agreement would allow Israel to maintain a buffer zone in Gaza during its implementation and that Israeli forces will not leave the territory until all hostages are released.
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Israel has asked Hamas for a list of hostages still alive. Without this, Israeli officials say, there can be no agreement on how many Palestinian prisoners Israel would be willing to release in exchange. As of Sunday morning, Israel had not received such a list, according to an official familiar with the matter.
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Last week, Hamas representatives indicated that the group had approved an Israeli list of 34 hostages to be released in the first phase of the deal, but did not specify how many of them were alive. On Wednesday, Israeli authorities announced that the body of one of the hostages whose name was on the list – Youssef Ziyadne, 53, an Arab citizen of Israel – had been found in Gaza.
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On Monday, Israeli officials confirmed that the number of hostages to be released in the first phase was 33 and said most of them were alive.
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But Hamas accepted Israel’s request to include 11 contested people in the list of hostages to be released in the first phase of the deal. Israel classifies them as civilians, but Hamas considers them soldiers, according to the two Israeli officials and the Palestinian. Israel is considering Hamas’ request that the 11 be treated as soldiers who would be exchanged for a greater number of Palestinian prisoners than those released for civilian hostages.
Isabel Kershner contributed reporting to this article.