Israel and Hamas reached agreement on an initial six-week truce, in part postponing their most difficult disputes to a nebulous second phase – which neither side is sure of reaching.
According to the agreement, 16 days into the ceasefire, Israeli and Hamas officials should begin negotiating the next steps: an end to the war, the release of the remaining living hostages from Gaza and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from territory.
Israeli leaders have long insisted that they will not end the war until Hamas is destroyed. That seemed far from reality on Sunday, when Hamas militants, some brandishing rifles, spread across parts of Gaza in pickup trucks, in a show of authority to both Palestinians and Israelis.
Both Israel and Hamas have retained some of their bargaining chips. At the end of the 42-day truce, Hamas will still have about two-thirds of its 98 remaining hostages, including dozens of people believed dead. And Israel will still occupy parts of Gaza and hold key prisoners, including Marwan Barghouti, a militant leader and iconic Palestinian political figure.
But as part of the talks, the Israeli government will likely have to decide whether it is willing to choose one of its war objectives, bringing the hostages home, over another, destroying Hamas. And the choice of hostages could threaten Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s seizure of power in Israel.
Meanwhile, both sides have agreed to postpone a decisive deal on the end of the war and the future of Gaza, and hope the 42-day ceasefire will play to their advantage, said Shlomo Brom, a retired Israeli brigadier general . Hamas, in particular, “hopes that the new dynamic will prevent Israel from returning to the fight,” he said.
The decision to accept a temporary ceasefire has opened deep rifts within Netanyahu’s ruling coalition, which is filled with hardliners. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, resigned from the government in protest on Sunday and withdrew his Jewish Power party from the coalition.
The Religious Zionism party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, also threatened to blow up the coalition if Netanyahu failed to resume fighting after the end of the 42-day truce. Even if Smotrich’s party leaves, Netanyahu’s government would win less than half the seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, which could cause the government to fall and force new elections.
On Saturday evening, Netanyahu stressed that the ceasefire is temporary for now. He argued that Israel retains the right to return to war if “the second phase of negotiations is ineffective,” adding that President-elect Donald J. Trump would support Israel’s decision.
“We reserve the right to return to war, if necessary, with the support of the United States,” Netanyahu said in a televised address.
The fragility of the truce was underlined on Sunday morning when Hamas did not immediately give Israel a list of hostages to be released, causing a nearly three-hour delay in the ceasefire. Analysts say the deal will likely see several similar tests in the coming weeks as both sides flex their muscles.
The families of the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza have asked the Israeli government to bring the remaining prisoners home while respecting all phases of the agreement. Noa Argamani, a freed hostage whose boyfriend, Avinatan Or, is still held captive, said it broke her heart that he would not be freed this round.
“The progress of the last few days is a very important step, but the agreement must be completed in all its phases,” Ms. Argamani said in a speech in Miami on Thursday.