When President Trump hosted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel in the White House in early April, a journalist reminded Mr. Trump that his 2024 campaign promised to end the war in Gaza did not remain unsatisfied.
Israel had recently broken a soft fire in his 18 -month war with Hamas and renewed his bombing of Gaza. But Mr. Trump professed optimism.
“I'd like to see the war stop,” he replied. “And I think the war will stop at a certain point that it will not be too far in the future.”
A month later, the peace prospects in Gaza have lowered even more.
Netanyahu warned Monday of an Israeli escalation “intensive in the Palestinian encycling after his security cabinet approved the plans to call tens of thousands of reservists for a new assault there.
The Israeli hawks insist that only strength can put pressure on Hamas in finally releasing the over 20 hostages that still holds a prisoner and put an end to the conflict. But many analysts say that a great Israeli escalation could kill any hope left for peace.
The question is now how Mr. Trump will react. The analysts said that, after a first burst of diplomacy to free the hostages and reach a long -term agreement, Mr. Trump and his high officials have become distracted by the conflict. This was equivalent to something free for Mr. Netanyahu, who seems ready to use it.
“At the beginning of the administration, the whole promise was on Gaza,” said Ilan Goldenberg, a specialist in the Middle East in the administrations of Obama and Biden. “But when the ceased the fire went into pieces, Trump practically gave the Israelis the green light to do what they wanted.”
“My meaning is that it is not so involved,” added Goldenberg, who is now a senior vice -president of J Street, a group of Jewish political defense on the left. “In a sense, he bored himself.”
Trump planned to go to the Middle East next week, with stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates.
A violent escalation in Gaza would be frustrating for Mr. Trump, a clear reminder that he was unable to deliver the peace he promised.
Yet it is possible that Mr. Trump lost his patience and welcomes with Israel to inflict a final blow, overwhelming against Hamas in what Mr. Netanyahu told his military officials they told him that the “conclusive moves” of war would be.
Mr. Trump could also have a high tolerance for Israel's use of heavy strength. Hamas warned that “all hell” will get rid if the group does not release the remaining hostages.
Michael Makovsky, president and CEO of the Hawkish Jewish Institute for National Security of America, agreed that Mr. Trump was less busy with Israel on Gaza than the Biden administration was.
President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and his high officials spent a great time after October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks trying to manage the Gaza campaign of Israel. Their goal was to limit civil suffering to Gaza and save Israel from the international condemnation, even if the critics called them too tolerant to use the strength by Israel.
Trump showed flashes of concern for the population of Gaza and on Monday he said he would help Gazas to “get some food” in the middle of an Israeli block.
But his attention to the conflict was sporadic.
“It is like the night and the day with the Biden administration, who was trying to micromanage the operations of Israel,” said Makovsky.
Israeli officials do not “receive phone calls,” he said. “I don't think they are pressed on how many help trucks are coming.”
Axios reported on Monday that Israel would have launched a new land operation in Gaza if an agreement with Hamas was not reached when Mr. Trump returned from his journey to the region. Makovsky, who recently participated in meetings with high Israeli officials, said that the relationship corresponded to his understanding.
When it comes to the Middle East, he added, Mr. Trump was more concentrated on the nascent diplomacy aimed at preventing Iran from developing a nuclear bomb.
In a statement on Monday, Brian Hughes, spokesman for the National Security Council, said that Trump “remains committed to guaranteeing the immediate release of hostages and the end of the Hamas rule in Gaza”. He added that “Hamas has the sole responsibility for this conflict and for the resumption of hostility”.
A sign of changing attention is the portfolio of Mr. Trump's special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff. At the beginning of the presidency of Mr. Trump, Mr. Witkoff threw himself in the diplomacy of Israel-Hamas in pursuing to extending a temporary agreement of ceased the fire reached on January 15.
But since then Mr. Witkoff has become a kind of super correspondent who juggles himself from many missions. The former real estate developer and a longtime friend of Trump also hired the Iranian file and met President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia four times to discuss Ukraine.
There is little to suggest that the secretary of state Marco Rubio intervened. Mr. Rubio, which Mr. Trump last week also gave the work of national security consultant, has not yet visited Israel.